There are two problems with confirmation bias. One, it is tempting to fall for it. Two, it is profitable to exploit it.
Whenever we act, we have a goal, whether explicit or not. We feel great when we feel that we are coming close to our goal. We feel bad when we feel that we are moving away from our goal.
That is why we have the tendency to affirm any evidence that hints to us that we are moving in the right direction and ignore any evidence to the contrary. We do not like being in a state of cognitive dissonance.
The day trader who believes that he has finally cracked the formula that will make him millions of dollars will be sure to remember all the times his theory worked, but he’ll forget about all the times he was wrong. The theist will look for all arguments for theism as evidence to corroborate what he already believes, while the atheists will see all arguments for atheism to corroborate what he already believes.
Not only is it psychologically disconcerting to exist in constant state of cognitive dissonance but is socially lethal. Imagine you tell all your friends that you are now vegan, and you make a long list of arguments for why you made your decision, and why they should follow your example. And then, a week later after reading something on the internet, you change your mind and decide to follow a strict carnivore diet.
Such a person will lose all credibility.
And the reason is that it feels highly rewarding to confirm what you already believe in. To learn about something that confirms your beliefs feels like a jolt of pleasure to the brain.
So, it shouldn’t be surprising each person is lured in by confirmation bias.
To make things worse, there are people that are happy to exploit this tendency. Say some popular business author comes up with a new theory, that everyone who goes to work with a purple tie becomes more productive. It sounds ridiculous at first, but this author then carefully assembles arguments in favor of his theory.
He cites examples of top executives and CEO’s who all wore purple ties to work. And then he comes up with some bogus explanation – a purple tie gives people around you a sense of professionalism and playfulness at the same time. Therefore, your co-workers will take you seriously, but will also perceive you as more creative, which increases your chances of being promoted.
Next, lazy business journalists will grab a hold of that idea and milk it. They’ll look for anything to corroborate the claim and publish it online. While you, after having told all your friends about this new quirky theory, can’t wait to share more corroborating evidence.
Self-help books are notorious for offering quick sound bites as wisdom that you should live your life by. They’ll probably tell you that meditation is the key to happiness and give you a long list of names of people who approve of this message. And since you don’t read about miserable meditators or happy non-meditators, you feel that you have no choice to believe them.
So what?
Knowing about our innate tendency towards confirmation bias, and knowing that others are likely to exploit it, what do we do?
There is only one thing left for us to do. We need to suspend judgement. If we aren’t really sure about something, there’s no reason to stake our reputation on some dubious belief that we might revise in a week or two. Let’s call this the “suspension of belief” antidote.
And second, to evaluate whether something is true, we should examine the best evidence on both sides, and read both earnestly and in good faith. And until we feel like we have reached a resolution, we should keep going.