Michael Shermer delves into the contrasting visions of a utopian and dystopian future associated with artificial intelligence (AI). He argues that both of these extreme visions are rooted in a flawed analogy between human nature and computer nature, as well as between natural intelligence and artificial intelligence.
Shermer highlights that humans are thinking machines with emotions shaped by evolution, whereas computers lack these inherent emotional responses. This fundamental difference leads him to dismiss the fear of malevolent AI, as it assumes that machines would develop emotions like jealousy or a desire for revenge, which he believes is unlikely.
Instead, Shermer introduces the concept of “protopia,” a term coined by futurist Kevin Kelly, which describes incremental progress in science and technology. He argues that most technological advancements, including AI, follow this pattern of gradual improvement rather than leading to either utopian or dystopian societies.
To illustrate this point, Shermer draws a parallel with the evolution of automobiles. Rather than achieving the once-imagined flying cars of the 1950s, progress has been slow and steady, resulting in safer and smarter vehicles over time.
In the context of AI, Shermer suggests that it will continue to evolve to serve human needs and desires, following a trajectory of incremental protopian progress rather than abrupt leaps into utopia or dystopia.