Ch.1: Understanding Energy: Fuels and Electricity (How the World Really Works)

The section paints a grand panorama of the evolution of life on Earth and humanity’s journey towards technological and environmental mastery. The narrative unfolds through the metaphorical lens of “probes” observing the Earth over billions of years, documenting key shifts and transformations. Then the author discusses energy and its modern uses.

Fundamental Shifts

1. Origins of Life and Oxygenation:
   • Life’s emergence nearly 4 billion years ago, initially confined to rare microorganisms in ocean vents.
   • The appearance of the first photosynthetic microbes about 3.5 billion years ago, absorbing near-infrared radiation without producing oxygen.
   • The radical shift with cyanobacteria using solar radiation to produce oxygen, eventually oxygenating Earth’s atmosphere.
2. Complex Aquatic Organisms:
   • The evolution of red and brown algae around 1.2 billion years ago, followed by green algae.
   • The discovery of the first differentiated cellular organisms, the Ediacaran fauna, over 600 million years ago, requiring oxygen and displaying mobility.
3. Rapid Evolution and Diversification:
   • A period of comparatively rapid changes, from the Cambrian explosion of marine bottom-dwellers to the emergence of fishes, amphibians, land plants, and four-legged animals.
   • Periodic extinctions and no single organism dominating the planet until recent times.
4. The Rise of Bipedalism:
   • A mechanical shift to bipedalism, becoming the norm for small ape-like creatures over 4 million years ago.
   • A rapid acceleration in reporting intervals from hundreds of millions to mere hundreds of thousands of years.
5. The Mastery of Fire and Environment:
   • The first extrasomatic use of energy through the deliberate use of fire for cooking, comfort, and safety.
   • The controlled combustion leading to unprecedented environmental control.
6. Agriculture and Domestication:
   • The adoption of crop cultivation about 10 millennia ago, with humans controlling and manipulating a small share of Earth’s total photosynthesis.
   • The domestication of working animals, providing the first extrasomatic energy other than human muscles.
7. Inanimate Prime Movers:
   • The invention of inanimate prime movers like sails, waterwheels, and windmills over millennia.
8. The Pre-Industrial Stagnation:
   • A period of repetition, stagnation, or slow growth, with human muscles still doing much of the work.
9. Coal Revolution and Early Industrialization:
   • The shift to burning coal in England around 1600, leading to fossil fuels surpassing biomass fuels.
   • The introduction of steam engines in mines, the first inanimate prime movers powered by fossil fuel.
10. Transition to Modern Energy Landscape:

• Even by 1850, coal supplies only 7 percent of all fuel energy, and human and animal muscles provide most mechanical energy.
• A slow diffusion of technological advances, making the world of 1850 more akin to that of 1600 than 2000.

Modern Energy Uses

1. Growth of Fossil Fuel Dependence:
   • A 60-fold increase in fossil fuel use during the 19th century, 16-fold in the 20th century, and a 1,500-fold increase over the past 220 years.
   • This growth is crucial for modern civilization’s advances and raises concerns about supply vulnerability and environmental impact.
2. Efficiency Gains:
   • Efficiency improvements led to a 3,500-fold gain in useful energy since 1800, from 15% overall conversion efficiency in 1800 to about 50% by 2000.
   • The 20th century alone saw a nearly 40-fold gain in useful energy.
3. Per Capita Energy Increase:
   • Global per capita useful energy supply rose from 0.05 gigajoules in 1800 to about 34 GJ/capita by 2020.
   • An average Earth inhabitant now has nearly 700 times more useful energy than in the early 19th century, tripling within the lifetime of people born just after World War II.
4. Physical Equivalents and Impact:
   • The energy available is equivalent to having 60 adults working non-stop for each person, or between 200 and 240 in affluent countries.
   • It underlies gains in living standards, from better eating to mass travel and instant communication, becoming norms in affluent countries.
5. National Changes and Modernization:
   • Significant national differences in energy increase, with astounding growth in countries like Japan, South Korea, and China.
   • The U.S. doubled per capita energy use, Japan quintupled, and China saw a 120-fold increase between 1950 and 2020.
6. Energy as the Basis of Life and Evolution:
   • Energy conversions are central to the complex structures of the biosphere, human societies, and economies.
   • Modern history is a rapid sequence of transitions to new energy sources, with energy as the universal currency.
7. Recognition by Physicists and Ignorance in Economics:
   • Physicists like Boltzmann and Schrödinger recognized energy’s fundamental importance.
   • Modern economics largely ignores energy, treating it as negligible due to its small cost share, a point criticized by physicist Robert Ayres.
8. Public Perception and Energy Literacy:
   • Public concern about energy arises only during supply threats or price spikes, illustrated by the Ngram Viewer’s tracking of the term “energy price.”
   • A modicum of energy literacy is essential to understanding the world and challenges of transitioning away from fossil fuels.

1. Understanding Food Production: Eating Fossil Fuels
   • Here, the author might explore the intersection between energy, particularly fossil fuels, and food production. The chapter could elucidate the dependence of agriculture on energy sources and the impacts of this relationship on sustainability and the environment.
2. Understanding Our Material World: The Four Pillars of Modern Civilization
   • This chapter appears to be an examination of the key elements that support our contemporary civilization. It may include discussions on materials, technology, infrastructure, and the philosophical and sociological constructs that bind them together.
3. Understanding Globalization: Engines, Microchips, and Beyond
   • In this segment, the book likely investigates globalization’s dynamics, focusing on technological advances like engines and microchips. The author might cover the economic, cultural, and political aspects of globalization and its implications for societies worldwide.
4. Understanding Risks: From Viruses to Diets to Solar Flares
   • This chapter seems to present an analysis of various risks that humanity faces. It may include both natural phenomena like solar flares and human-made challenges like dietary habits. The author could explore the science behind these risks and propose ways to mitigate them.
5. Understanding the Environment: The Only Biosphere We Have
   • This part of the book likely focuses on environmental science, conservation, and the ecological balance within our biosphere. Topics may include climate change, pollution, biodiversity, and the responsible stewardship of our planet’s resources.
6. Understanding the Future: Between Apocalypse and Singularity
   • In the concluding chapter, the author probably reflects on the future, considering both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The range “between Apocalypse and Singularity” suggests a contemplation of existential risks, technological advancements, and the philosophical considerations that underpin our visions of the future.

What is Energy?

1. Historical Perspective:
   • The Greek etymology of energy, as explained by Aristotle, endowed objects with the potential for action and change.
   • Isaac Newton laid down fundamental laws, allowing the basic definition of energy units like joules, but this related only to kinetic energy.
2. 19th Century Expansion:
   • Experiments in the 19th century expanded understanding, leading to the common definition of energy as “the capacity for doing work,” encompassing combustion, heat, radiation, and motion.
3. Feynman’s Insight:
   • Physicist Richard Feynman recognized various forms of energy, including gravitational, kinetic, heat, elastic, electrical, chemical, radiant, nuclear, and mass energy.
   • He concluded that physics today does not actually know what energy is, only how to calculate it, emphasizing energy’s abstract nature.
4. Misunderstandings and Misapplications:
   • Energy’s elusive nature has not deterred experts from often misunderstanding it, treating different forms of energy as effortlessly substitutable.
   • Some substitutions have been beneficial, but others remain more expensive, unaffordable, or impossible, despite proponents’ claims.
5. Examples and Categories:
   • Electric cars, hydrogen production, and long-distance electric flight are explored as examples of possible but challenging or unrealistic energy substitutions.
6. Laws of Thermodynamics:
   • The first law states that no energy is lost during conversions; the second law acknowledges that all energy conversions eventually result in low-temperature heat, losing its utility.
7. Energy Conversions and Choices:
   • Many choices exist for energy conversions, some more suitable than others, depending on factors like energy densities and physical properties.
   • Energy densities of different fuels (wood, coal, kerosene, etc.) affect their applications, with liquid hydrocarbons being suitable for transportation due to high energy density.
8. Products Derived from Crude Oil:
   • Beyond fuels, crude oil provides essential products like lubricants, asphalt, and feedstocks for various synthetic products.
   • These uses have made our dependence on crude oil grow, especially as it became more affordable and reliably delivered.
9. Shift from Coal to Crude Oil:
   • The transition from coal to crude oil took generations, beginning in the 1850s and expanding with the adoption of internal combustion engines.
   • Globalization of crude oil was facilitated by the discovery of giant oil fields and the introduction of large tankers.
10. Common Confusions:

• A common mistake is confusing energy with power, even in engineering publications, showing a lack of understanding of basic physics.
• Recent calls for a green shift from fossil fuels to renewable solar electricity overlook the complex realities of energy density and suitability for different applications.

Crude’s Rise and Relative Retreat

1. Post-war Boom in Oil:
   • The 1950s saw the mass adoption of cars in Europe and Japan, conversion to crude oil, expansion of foreign trade and travel, and the use of petrochemical feedstocks.
   • Global oil extraction doubled during the 1950s, and by 1964, crude oil surpassed coal as the world’s leading fossil fuel.
2. Declining Prices and Rising Inefficiency:
   • Despite rising output, the plentiful supply led to falling prices, making crude oil cheap and reducing incentives for efficiency.
   • U.S. houses were poorly insulated, car efficiency declined, and energy-intensive industries continued to use inefficient processes.
3. Surging Demand and New Powers:
   • During the late 1960s, U.S. oil demand rose by nearly 25%, global demand increased by 50%, and European and Japanese demands also surged.
   • The U.S. share of world oil production fell, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) grew to produce 48% of the oil.
4. OPEC’s Influence and the Oil Crisis:
   • OPEC’s increasing share and the nationalization of oil production in several countries shifted the market balance.
   • The price of oil jumped 4.5-fold in 1973-74, leading to an end of the era of rapid economic expansion fueled by cheap oil.
5. Global Economic Impact:
   • The oil price rises caused a 90% drop in global economic growth rate twice, first in 1973-75 and again in 1979-82.
   • The trauma of these price rises led to lasting economic reversals and intensified oil-saving measures.
6. Decline and Resurgence:
   • High prices reduced demand, leading to a price drop in 1986 and setting the stage for a new round of globalization, with China’s rapid modernization at the forefront.
   • Crude oil extraction surpassed its 1979 record in 1995 but has not regained its pre-1975 dominance, with its share of global energy supply continuing to decline.
7. Shift Towards Renewables:
   • Opportunities to generate electricity with photovoltaic cells and wind turbines are expanding, but the complete reliance on renewables would require either mass-scale electricity storage or extensive transmission grids.
   • Questions remain about the feasibility of replacing all energy supplied by liquid fuels with renewables in just two or three decades.

The Many Advantages of Electricity

1. Nature of Electricity:
   • Electricity, in contrast to tangible solid or liquid fuels, is intangible and lacks intuitive accessibility.
   • Its effects can be seen in phenomena such as static electricity, sparks, and lightning, but understanding its definitions requires knowledge of terms like electrons, flow, charge, and current.
2. Electricity as a Black Box System:
   • For many, electricity is akin to a ubiquitous black box system: its input and output are known, but the processes inside remain mysterious to most.
3. Generation and Distribution Challenges:
   • Generating electricity for mass-scale commercial use is complex and expensive, requiring transformers, high-voltage transmission lines, and distribution networks.
   • Despite technological advancements, storing electricity affordably in large quantities remains an unmet challenge.
4. Ubiquity and Efficiency:
   • Electricity’s use is effortless, clean, and often highly efficient. It powers lights, motors, heaters, coolers, and more without the complications associated with traditional fuels.
   • It stands unrivaled as a source of lighting, with innovations in luminous efficacy making it increasingly powerful and efficient.
5. Revolutionizing Industry and Everyday Life:
   • Electric motors revolutionized industrial production and later entered every household, enhancing productivity and transforming transportation, including rail systems.
   • Tiny electric motors activate mobile phone vibrators, while more prominent motors power everything from elevators to household appliances.
6. Electrification of Transportation:
   • Electrification has transformed rail transport, including high-speed trains, and even basic cars now contain numerous small electric motors.
7. Essential for Basic Services:
   • Electricity enables the provision of drinking water and the movement of fossil fuels. Without it, the modern supply of water, heating, and transportation fuels would be impossible.
8. The Trend Towards Electrification:
   • The long-term trend toward electrification is clear, with new renewables like solar and wind feeding into the progression.
   • Despite its profound impact, electricity still supplies only a relatively small share of final global energy consumption, just 18%.

Before you flip a switch

1. Origins and Early Growth (1882-1900):
   • Commercial electricity generation began in 1882 with two coal-fired stations by Thomas Edison and one hydroelectric station.
   • Expansion began in the 1890s when AC transmission and AC electric motors became prevalent.
2. Growth in Fossil Fuel Consumption (1900-1950):
   • In 1900, less than 2% of the world’s fossil fuel production was used for electricity; by 1950, the share was less than 10%; it now stands at about 25%.
3. Expansion of Hydroelectric and Nuclear Capacity (1930s-2012):
   • Hydroelectric capacity grew during the 1930s, with state-funded projects and record-size constructions such as Brazil’s Itaipu and China’s Three Gorges.
   • Nuclear fission began in 1956 and peaked in 2006, contributing to about 10% of global electricity.
4. Current Generation Mix (2020):
   • Hydro accounted for nearly 16%, wind and solar almost 7%, and the rest came mostly from coal and natural gas.
5. Rapid Growth in Demand (1970-2020):
   • Global electricity generation quintupled, outpacing the total primary energy demand’s tripling.
   • Baseload generation grew with urbanization and the need for constant power supply in cities.
6. The Changing Nature of Demand:
   • Urbanization and modern lifestyles, including 24-hour services and air conditioning, have changed the patterns of electricity demand, leading to brighter, always-illuminated cities.
7. Imperative for High Reliability:
   • The high reliability of electricity supply is vital in societies dependent on electricity for everything from healthcare to industry.
   • Interruptions in supply can have catastrophic consequences, far exceeding even the disruption caused by events like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Decarbonization: Size and Scale

1. State of Fossil Fuel Reserves: The Earth’s crust holds ample fossil fuel resources. Coal reserves could last about 120 years, and oil and gas for about 50 years at current production levels.
2. Global Warming Concerns and Decarbonization Goals:
   • The rapid rate of global warming has spurred calls for urgent decarbonization.
   • The goal is to achieve “net zero” emissions by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5ºC or 2ºC.
   • Net zero means that any emissions must be offset by removing CO2 from the atmosphere or other temporary measures like tree planting.
3. Countries’ Commitment to Net Zero:
   • Over 100 nations have set net-zero goals, ranging from Norway in 2030 to China in 2060.
   • Achieving net zero by 2050 would require an unprecedented energy transition.
4. Decarbonization of Electricity Generation:
   • Solar and wind capacity can now compete with fossil fuels.
   • Germany has increased its wind and solar capacity tenfold, raising renewables to 40% of generation.
   • Challenges include intermittency, transmission, and the need for reserve capacity.
   • Renewed reliance on nuclear electricity generation or large-scale electricity storage could resolve some problems.
5. Challenges with Intermittent Energy Sources:
   • Germany still relies on fossil fuels for 48% of electricity, maintaining 89% of fossil-fired capacity for cloudy and calm days.
   • Transmission projects to move wind or solar electricity to high-demand areas have lagged.
6. Issues with Large-Scale Electricity Storage and Nuclear Generation:
   • Existing storage solutions are insufficient for large cities.
   • Modern nuclear reactors could offer a safe and reliable option, but high costs and public sentiment have hindered expansion.
7. Decarbonizing Transportation and Industry:
   • The gap between energy density of fuel and batteries makes electric intercontinental flights unlikely in the near future.
   • New processes are needed to produce steel, ammonia, cement, and plastics without fossil fuels.
8. Slow Progress Outside of Electricity Generation:
   • Germany’s dependence on fossil fuels has only declined from 84% to 78% in two decades.
   • Global consumption of fossil fuels rose by 45% during the first two decades of the 21st century.
9. Realistic Assessment of Fossil Fuel Dependence:
   • Global demand for fossil carbon is enormous, making rapid substitutions impossible.
   • Careful long-term scenarios predict a decline from 80% to 56% or 72% of total global demand by 2040.
10. Conclusion:

• The affluent world can take rapid decarbonization steps, but for the majority of the population, more energy is needed for development.
• The transition will not be a sudden abandonment of fossil carbon but a gradual decline.