The Singularity and The Six Epochs (Part 2)

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Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus, the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.

—IRVING JOHN GOOD, “SPECULATIONS CONCERNING THE FIRST ULTRAINTELLIGENT MACHINE,” 1965

As we continue to explore the concept of the Singularity, we journey from Ray Kurzweil’s “The Singularity Is Near” and “The Technological Singularity” in 1993 to the past, where Irving John Good’s 1965 paper, “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine,” laid the groundwork for modern artificial intelligence ideas. Let’s take a closer look at Good’s work, understanding its significance in the development of AI.

In this paper, Good, a British mathematician and statistician who worked with Alan Turing during World War II, explores the idea of an “ultraintelligent machine” that could surpass human intelligence.

Good’s primary argument is that once a machine is designed to possess human-level intelligence, it would likely be capable of designing an even more intelligent machine. This new, more intelligent machine could then improve its own design, leading to a rapid increase in intelligence, an idea now commonly referred to as an “intelligence explosion.”

Good writes: “Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man, however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind.”

He also speculates that the ultraintelligent machine’s primary goals might include self-preservation, improving its own intelligence, and achieving various problem-solving tasks. Good acknowledges that the creation of such a machine raises ethical and safety concerns, as well as questions about the machine’s impact on society and the potential risks of concentrating so much intelligence and power in a single entity.

Although written over five decades ago, Good’s paper remains influential and relevant today, as it helped lay the groundwork for the modern discussion surrounding artificial general intelligence (AGI), superintelligence, and the potential risks and benefits associated with creating machines that surpass human intelligence.

First, we build the tools, then they build us.

 – Marshall McLuhan

As we create more advanced and sophisticated technologies, they will, in turn, shape and redefine our understanding of intelligence, humanity, and our place in the universe. As AI systems become more capable and integrated into our lives, they will influence our decision-making processes, redefine the boundaries of human potential, and challenge our understanding of what it means to be human. In essence, our creations become extensions of ourselves, and as they evolve, so do we.

As Harari, the author of Sapiens and Homo Deus, puts it:

“1. Science is converging on an all-encompassing dogma, which says that organisms are algorithms, and life is data processing. 2. Intelligence is decoupling from consciousness. 3. Non-conscious but highly intelligent algorithms may soon know us better than we know ourselves.” – Yuval Noah Harari

In today’s world, the tools we create weave themselves into the fabric of our lives, changing us as much as we change them. Take, for example, social media. Platforms like Facebook and Twitter have revolutionized our connections, bridging distances and changing how we relate to one another. Yet, in turn, they’ve made us crave the instant gratification of likes and retweets, altering the nature of human interaction.

Smartphones, now an extension of ourselves, have become indispensable companions. They navigate our way through life, entertain and inform us, yet hold us captive to their screens, tethering us to a realm of constant connectivity. Our attention spans dwindle, and we find ourselves prisoners of our own making.

In the realm of artificial intelligence, we encounter Siri and Alexa, who whisper answers in our ears and manage the minutiae of our lives. But as we lean on them more and more, we must ask: Are we changing our understanding of intelligence? Are we molding our decision-making processes to fit the ever-evolving machines?

Our shopping habits, too, have transformed. E-commerce sites like Amazon and eBay offer us a vast global marketplace, accessible with a few clicks. While this convenience alters our consumption patterns, it also shakes the foundations of brick-and-mortar stores, with repercussions rippling through our communities.

Remote work, once a distant dream, has become a reality for many. Advances in technology have redefined the workspace, forcing companies to adapt and reevaluate traditional work culture. The balance between work and life shifts, leaving us to ponder the future of employment.

But the difference with artificial intelligence is that it’s fundamentally different in form. You can always choose to uninstall social media apps from your phone, or even live without technology. In many ways, our phones, while highly useful, are distraction machines that rob us of peace of mind and mental clarity. However, a disembodied intelligence, such as AI, leaves us no choice. If an algorithm knows everything about you and can give you an objectively better assessment of what you should do next, it will be very difficult to resist. After all, you are wired too.

The difference is that you are wired for totally different goals than AI. But nonetheless, regardless of your biologically wiring, it is still possible for you to desire things that are destructive to your own survival. With AI, you will be so much more capable of achieving your goals, no matter how constructive or destructive they are.

We have already ceded considerable decision-making to AI.

Algorithmic trading represents a paradigm shift in the world of finance, as it cedes a significant portion of the decision-making process to artificial intelligence and advanced algorithms. At its core, algorithmic trading involves the use of sophisticated computer programs to automatically execute trades based on predefined criteria, such as market trends, pricing data, and trading volumes. These algorithms are designed to analyze vast amounts of financial data at breakneck speed, identify lucrative trading opportunities, and execute transactions with minimal human intervention.

There are many examples of AI being used in finance. Here are some:

Another example where AI is revolutionizing decision-making is in the field of healthcare. Medical professionals increasingly rely on AI-powered diagnostic tools to analyze complex medical data, such as medical imaging or genetic information, and identify patterns that might otherwise go unnoticed. By utilizing AI algorithms, healthcare providers can expedite the diagnostic process, enhance the accuracy of their findings, and ultimately improve patient outcomes. In this context, AI serves as an invaluable aid to human decision-making, offering insights that might otherwise be inaccessible to medical professionals and guiding them toward more informed treatment plans. An AI system defeats top doctors in tumor diagnosis competition in China. The AI correctly diagnosed 85% in just 18 minutes, compared to top neurologists who achieved 64% accuracy in 50 minutes. Soon, our best diagnosticians are going to be AIs.

Lastly, AI has made significant inroads in the realm of human resources, specifically in the recruitment and talent acquisition process. Companies are now leveraging AI-driven platforms to screen and evaluate job applicants, using advanced algorithms to parse through resumes, assess candidates’ qualifications, and even analyze responses during interviews. By incorporating AI into the hiring process, businesses can streamline their recruitment efforts, reduce the impact of human biases, and identify top talent more effectively. Here are some examples:

“You know, things are going to be really different! … No, no, I mean really different!” – Mark Miller (Computer Scientist) to Eric Drexler, Around 1986

The quote from computer scientist Mark Miller to Eric Drexler, a key figure in the development of nanotechnology, likely took place in the mid-1980s. At this time, the potential of computers, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology was beginning to be recognized, though it was still in its early stages. Mark Miller’s statement highlights the realization that emerging technologies would profoundly change the world in ways that were difficult to imagine at the time.

Eric Drexler, known for his pioneering work in molecular nanotechnology, published “Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology” in 1986. This book introduced the concept of molecular assemblers, tiny machines capable of manipulating matter at the atomic level. Drexler’s work helped to popularize the idea that nanotechnology could lead to a revolution in manufacturing, medicine, and other areas, making possible things that were previously considered science fiction.

Miller’s enthusiastic exclamation captures the sense of awe and excitement that comes with the realization that the world is on the cusp of major transformation. His words remind us that as technology continues to advance, it has the potential to alter the fabric of our lives in ways we can scarcely imagine. The context of the quote serves as a reminder of the power of innovation and the importance of being open to the unexpected and the unknown, as we continue to explore the ever-evolving landscape of technology and its impact on society.

In this journey through the realm of human invention and progress, we have explored the ways in which technology shapes our lives, alters our identities, and propels us into uncharted territories. Kurzweil’s visions of the future, intertwined with powerful quotes from great thinkers, reveal the profound impact of the tools we create and the accelerating pace of change that follows. The symbiosis between humanity and technology has never been more evident

As we stand at the precipice of a new era, guided by machine intelligence and sustained by the boundless potential of technological advancements, we are compelled to contemplate the true essence of what it means to be human. Are we the creators or the created? As we merge with our machines, will we lose our humanity, or will we gain a deeper understanding of our potential?

Related posts:

  1. The Veil of Ignorance
  2. Chapter 17: Death (Genome)
  3. Mind and Cosmos Summary (8/10)
  4. The Singularity and The Six Epochs (Part 1)

"A gilded No is more satisfactory than a dry yes" - Gracian