Raphael Bousso discusses the concept of typicality when considering the future of human civilization and the potential role of artificial intelligence. Key points include:
1. Typicality Argument: Bousso argues that humans are likely to be typical among any collection of intelligent beings when assessing the future. This means that we should not assume we are among the first or exceptional in terms of human civilization.
2. Probability Distribution: Bousso likens this reasoning to the scientific method, where theories provide probability distributions rather than definite outcomes. The idea is that we don’t get to tailor questions after making observations to make them look surprising; we should assume typicality.
3. Unlikely Scenarios: Bousso suggests that our typicality makes it extremely unlikely that humans will continue to exist for many millions of years or that we will be supplanted by a much longer-lived or different type of civilization, such as thinking machines. These scenarios would make us highly atypical.
4. Possible Existence of Other Civilizations: Typicality allows for the possibility of other civilizations in the galaxy and beyond, but their durations are unlikely to vastly exceed ours.
5. Study of Distant Planetary Systems: Bousso suggests that studying distant planetary systems may provide insights into the prevalence of intelligent machines as a final evolutionary step.
Overall, Bousso’s argument emphasizes the importance of considering typicality when thinking about the future of human civilization and the potential impact of artificial intelligence.