P. 84 Halo effect. You have an impression about someone, colours everything else you think about them. Kahneman allowed cognitive ease to determine how he graded assignments, when he found a student who did well on one question, he became less critical of their answers in subsequent questions. Also known s a general principle:decorrelate error.
The wisdom of crowds shows us that individual accuracy can be less accurate than average observations or predictions of a group, but only if group observations were made independently. If members within the group can influence each other, group becomes less accurate.
P. 87) What you see is all there is (WYSIATI) = Information that cannot be retrieved by you consciously or unconsciously might as well not exist. The brain seeks coherence – if it cannot find a good narrative, it will. Since cognitive ease is necessary for you to believe anything, you must take his shortcut for practical reasons.
WYSIATI – 3 Cognitive biases:
- Overconfidence: Rhetoric > Quality of Evidence
- Framing Effects: 90% Fat
Base Rate Neglect: Seve the meek and tidy soul.