NATO (The Next Decade)

Friedman does not think that Europe will go back to concentration camps and trenches, but the next decade will see more geopolitical tension, with the roots of a more serious war.

The Americans also had a vested interest in European prosperity. Through the Marshall Plan and other mechanisms, the United States created a favorable environment in which to revive the European economy while also creating the foundations for a European military capability. The more prosperity was generated through association with the United States, the more attractive membership in NATO became. The greater the contrast was between living conditions in the Soviet bloc and in Western Europe, the more likely that contrast was to generate unrest in the east. The United States believed ideologically and practically in free trade, but more than that, it wanted to see greater integration among the European economies, both for its own sake and to bind the potentially fractious alliance together.

The Americans saw a European union as a buttress for NATO while the Europeans saw it as an opportunity to recover from world and impose a place for themselves. But the relationship between America and European countries is not straightforward.

Germany can afford to distance itself from America, in part because its traditional problem of being squeezed from both sides is gone and it has a close and friendly relationship with France. Germany no longer borders Russia but now has Poland as a buffer. Germany needs natural gas, which the Russians have in abundance, and the Russians need technology and expertise, both of which Germany has to spare.

Furthermore, significant population decline will soon affect Germany’s industrial plant, as a labor shortage, combined with an aging population, creates a formula for economic disaster.

Even with its own decline, Russia will still have a surplus of labor that Germany can utilize, both by importing Russian workers and by moving production to Russia. The only way to counteract population decline is by encouraging immigration, but immigration and national identity in Europe are at odds.

If Germany doesn’t want to attract workers to factories at home, it can move its factories elsewhere. The Russian population is also declining but because of its weak economy (focus on primary commodities), it has a surplus workforce (the unemployed/underemployed).

France has hedged its bets, playing the role of Northern European power and Mediterranean power, even considering the formation of a Mediterranean Union alongside the EU.

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