The French wanted influence in the Middle East since the days of Napoleon. They had also made a commitment to defend the Arab Christians in the area against the majority Muslim population. During a civil war that raged in the region in the 1860s, the French had allied with factions that had forged ties with … Read more
The fact that the Iranian regime is split between old clerics who came to power with Ayatollah Khomeini and younger, nonclerical leaders such as Ahmadinejad adds to Iranian worries. But the leaders’ primary concern is that they have seen other U.S. -sponsored uprisings succeed, particularly in the former Soviet Union, and they cannot gamble that … Read more
Even though the U.S. wants to destroy al Qaeda and similar groups to protect itself, it also wants to protect the Arabian Peninsula and its oil – oil that the U.S. does not want to see in the hands of only one regional power. Historically, the U.S. has ensured that the Saudi royal family has … Read more
An unsentimental foreign policy means that in the coming decade, the president must identify with a clear and cold eye the most dangerous enemies, then create coalitions to manage them. This unsentimental approach means breaking free of the entire Cold War system of alliances and institutions, including NATO, the International Monetary Fund, and the United … Read more
Interdependence has historically led to friction and war. In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, France and Germany feared each other’s power, so each tried to shape the other’s behavior. The result was that the two countries went to war with each other three times in seventy years. Prior to World War I, the English … Read more
Some countries make up for their weaknesses economically by being clever, but all the cleverness in the world can’t compensate for profound weakness. The United States possesses what I call “deep power,” and deep power must be first and foremost balanced power. This means economic, military, and political power in appropriate and mutually supporting amounts. … Read more
The Next Decade is a book about geopolitics by George Friedman, author of The Next 100 Years. Overview Most people think that the longer the time frame, the more unpredictable the future. I take the opposite view. Individual actions are the hardest thing to predict. In the course of a century, so many individual decisions … Read more
In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer makes the contrarian case that the world doesn’t need more experts, more number crunching, more big data, but rather, a better education about the nature of risk. He contrasts risk with uncertainty. Risk is associated with controlled environments with fixed rules, such as casinos. These are places that allow us to … Read more
Which one is true? In other words, basic human instincts tell us about how societies will behave, or social relations and events tells us about the nature of the individual person? It can be argued that relationships create a person’s identity, that an individual can only exist insofar as they have a social role. And … Read more
Perspectives on Our Age is a reflection by Jacques Ellul on his life and work. If we wish to research the properties of water, we know better than to study only the properties of its basic components. The properties of water cannot be deduced from those of oxygen and hydrogen, because something new emerges when … Read more